Calibrated risk forecasts
A probability the asset has a sharp down-day, and whether the next week is likely to be more volatile than usual — cross-validated and Platt-calibrated, with the out-of-sample AUC shown next to every number.
Everything you need to read the risk
A calibrated forecast, the macro backdrop that drives it, alerts, and a Learn layer — all in one cockpit, all explained in plain language.
25 assets, one cockpit
SOL, BTC, ETH and 22 more liquid coins — switch the anchor and the candles, forecast and risk synthesis all re-point to that asset.
The macro backdrop, explained
Credit stress, the dollar, rates, funding, the Fear & Greed index and dozens more series — each with a plain-language note on what it means for crypto and how much it actually predicts.
Learn as you go
A built-in education layer — AUC, calibration, lead/lag, base rates — in beginner and pro modes, with live examples from the current market.
Alerts that reach you
Link Telegram and get a message when the model flags a regime flip or a rising drawdown probability — no need to sit and watch the screen.
Honest by design
A risk gauge, not a money printer. We show where the model has skill and where it doesn't, and never dress a co-movement up as a prediction.
Simple, honest pricing
One fair annual price — no monthly churn. We can't out-price the institutions, and our data is built on free + open sources, so Pro is priced to be useful for years, not to nickel-and-dime you.
Free
$0
- The market-risk read (state + stress) on the example coin
- The price chart + the full Learn layer
- A preview of every Pro page
Pro · annual
$19.00 / year
- The AI/ML drawdown + volatility forecast (every coin)
- All 25 assets and the full anchor switcher
- The full macro backdrop + the Metrics catalogue
- Risk-regime and credit-stress alerts
- The stable Pro API for your own products
Crypto checkout is opening soon — the free tier is live today, and this is the full price: one fair figure a year, priced for everyone, everywhere.
Questions, answered
A few of the most common ones — we keep a full, searchable list in the Help & FAQ.
Is this financial advice or a trading signal?
No. w4rn is a risk-awareness and education tool. Our own walk-forward backtest found the forecast is a risk gauge, not a tradeable signal — it tells you when to brace and size down, not what to buy. Nothing here is financial advice.
Where does the data come from?
Free and open sources only — public market data plus open macro series (credit, rates, the dollar, funding, sentiment). No paid feeds are required for the core read.
Do I need a crypto wallet to use it?
No. You can read the market model with a normal account. A wallet only matters if you later choose to pay for a paid tier in crypto.
How accurate is it?
We publish the out-of-sample AUC next to every forecast. The volatility-regime read is the strongest (AUC around 0.6 to 0.7 across assets); the drawdown read is weaker and we say so. Magnitude is more forecastable than direction — direction mostly is not.
Not financial advice. w4rn is a research and
education tool that estimates market risk. It does not tell you what to
buy or sell, it does not predict prices, and nothing on this site is
financial, investment, or trading advice. Crypto is volatile and you can
lose money. Do your own research.